THE NINE HORSEMEN OF THE EUROCALYPSE

Amidst the storm of news, hype, hope, panic and confusion which continues to batter investors on a seemingly daily basis, it's all too easy to become sidetracked by what is ultimately unimportant and lose sight of the really big picture.  




So I decided it might be useful to pull the focus way back and view the global stock market puzzle in its broadest perspective.  And, since major turns in stock markets are also proven leading indicators of economic downturns and recoveries, any clarity into the future direction of stocks might just help us gain a little more clarity about the general direction in which the world economy is headed.

RETURN TO THE DOME OF DOOM

Back in the spring of 2011, I published a post which made what seemed to many an audacious, even outrageous, market call.  It revolved around the dramatic re-appearance of one of the weirdest patterns in technical analysis: 'Three Peaks and a Domed House'.




This pattern warned of an imminent and spectacular stock market collapse which, whilst affecting all of us, would fall hardest on one far-flung region of the world. Those who took note of my call know what happened next.  Almost exactly one year on, the pattern has re-emerged - but this time its potential for destruction is even greater.  Because it now appears a market tornado is brewing which will, if it triggers, touch down right here in our own back yard.

POISONED $AAPL?

PART ONE: What could possibly go wrong?

(NB: Please use the fullscreen button for a crystal clear image)

On March 7th, Apple will launch the next generation of its iconic iPad.  It will be the first major launch since the death of the company's founder, Steve Jobs.  




With its stock price soaring into the Applesphere and the fundamental outlook apparently never better, new CEO Tim Cook is under pressure to maintain its tearaway earnings momentum and extend the company's exalted reputation for ground-breaking innovation and design.

LESSONS FROM A HANGING MAN

Which way will the market break?
That's the cliffhanger...

THE YEAR OF THE CAT

This is the Year of the Cat.  

No, I'm not talking about the mysterious cat in the Vietnamese zodiac.  And I'm not talking about the excruciating 1970s album which gave Al Stewart his one and (thankfully) only hit.  I'm talking about a strange creature which stalks the corridors of science simultaneously dead and alive, a feline paradox known in the world of physics as Shrodinger's Cat.  

BULLSEYE - NOW WHAT?

How ONTHEMONEY called the essential turning points, 
in posts and tweets, since our latest crisis began

On October 4th, as stock markets across the world appeared headed for the abyss, as headline writers were dipping their quills deep in red ink and investors were pricing in a Greek vision of financial armaggeddon, I begat a tweet:  

RECESSION 2011

The Economic Cycle Research Institute has, over many years, earned a reputation as the world's most reliable forecasting organization.  Its array of 'black box' leading indicators take the pulse of economies across the globe, with the aim of alerting investors and decision makers to major turning points accurately and presciently.  

GREECE: THE FAT LADY AIN'T SUNG YET

One of the most revered investment gurus of the 1970s and 80s was Bob Farrell, who, as as chief stock market analyst at Merrill Lynch, enjoyed a front row seat during some of the biggest booms and busts of the 20th century.