Thursday, 4 November 2010

Dollar breaks down - CORRECTION STYMIED





The almost perfect correlation between the US dollar & stocks -
until that breaks or the dollar bottoms, markets are heading higher




Following the election results and the Fed's announcement of renewed quantitative easing, a flash of euphoria today lifted many stock markets around the world to new highs...





Tuesday, 19 October 2010

Correction Imminent - UPDATE






TWO PATHS DIVERGED IN A YELLOW WOOD...






Following a stellar September, I believe the stars are now lining up powerfully to halt the progress markets have made since Ben 'The Beard' Bernanke placed his quivering finger over that nuclear button marked 'QE2'...





Tuesday, 12 October 2010

STOCKS, PRECIOUS METALS, COMMODITIES: Correction imminent







7pm TUESDAY 12TH OCTOBER 2010




A sharp pullback in virtually all risk assets - in which category I now have to include the 'safe-havens' of gold and silver - is close at hand.  





Thursday, 7 October 2010

UK PROPERTY: Prices post record drop as bull trap snaps shut





A BULL TRAP IN HOUSING (AND STOCKS) WAS SET IN THE REBOUND OF 2009 - ANYBODY BUYING SINCE ON A PRESUMPTION THAT THE WORST IS OVER IS LIKELY IN FOR A SHOCK




In my original Financial Report sent out way back in January 2009, I included a chart illustrating the classic timeline of an investment mania.  Here it is again, unaltered.  It applies to share prices, it applies to house prices.  It applies to tulips.  




After months of gradually accelerating price falls and a shocker out today, it seems increasingly clear that our 'dead-cat bounce' in housing is well and truly deceased.  The illusion of a return to normality persisted for a year and saw prices, in London especially, rebound quite strongly.  But it does appear that this was indeed a classic 'bull trap' and that the next extended phase of the decline has now begun.





Monday, 4 October 2010

Part II - WHAT LIES BENEATH







Manipulative, calculating and infuriatingly effective, Robert Zemeckis' Hitchcockian chiller stars Michelle Pfeiffer as a car crash victim suffering from amnesia and a 'perfect' marriage. Having moved with her scientific-genius husband into a beautiful New England retreat (Harrison Ford in one of his last ever topless appearances), she soon discovers that her new house is haunted, her neighbour is a violent wife-beater and her husband may be a liar, an adulterer and possibly, even, a killer.


Natural and supernatural clues soon lead her to seek answers at the bottom of a nearby lake.  



What lies beneath~~~?  




Thursday, 16 September 2010

GOLD: The ultimate bubble





Soros has, over the lifetime of his fund, made more money for his clients
than British Airways or Apple have earned in their entire history.











George Soros, according to a recent study the world's most profitable hedge fund manager, opined on various investment topics during a recent symposium.  Asked his opinion on gold, he repeated his view that it was in a huge bubble and was not a 'safe' investment...







Sunday, 5 September 2010

BALL OF CONFUSION (Part 1)






Round and around and around we go
Where the world's headed nobody knows

(Fans, marvel at the a capella vocals here)




Vietnam, 
segregation, 
social degradation, 
inner-city decay, 
drugs, 
police brutality, 
political corruption... 




Considering the catalogue of injustice The Temptations had to sing about when this classic was released in 1970, the use of an iconic protest song to illustrate the economic problems in our altogether more bountiful age might seem a little flip.  



But if that year represented a turning point between the youth-inspired creativity, hope and idealism of the 1960s and the late-century age of cynicism, materialism and greed which ultimately followed, I'm wondering if a different kind of tipping point may have been reached right here, in the dog-days of 2010.



Saturday, 28 August 2010

Long Term Investment Strategy - a critical update





















In August's On the Money post I outlined in broad terms a strategy which, if a century of data can be trusted, should allow anyone serious about their pension or investments to build up a very handsome return over time.