LESSONS FROM A HANGING MAN

Which way will the market break?
That's the cliffhanger...

THE YEAR OF THE CAT

This is the Year of the Cat.  

No, I'm not talking about the mysterious cat in the Vietnamese zodiac.  And I'm not talking about the excruciating 1970s album which gave Al Stewart his one and (thankfully) only hit.  I'm talking about a strange creature which stalks the corridors of science simultaneously dead and alive, a feline paradox known in the world of physics as Shrodinger's Cat.  

BULLSEYE - NOW WHAT?

How ONTHEMONEY called the essential turning points, 
in posts and tweets, since our latest crisis began

On October 4th, as stock markets across the world appeared headed for the abyss, as headline writers were dipping their quills deep in red ink and investors were pricing in a Greek vision of financial armaggeddon, I begat a tweet:  

RECESSION 2011

The Economic Cycle Research Institute has, over many years, earned a reputation as the world's most reliable forecasting organization.  Its array of 'black box' leading indicators take the pulse of economies across the globe, with the aim of alerting investors and decision makers to major turning points accurately and presciently.  

GREECE: THE FAT LADY AIN'T SUNG YET

One of the most revered investment gurus of the 1970s and 80s was Bob Farrell, who, as as chief stock market analyst at Merrill Lynch, enjoyed a front row seat during some of the biggest booms and busts of the 20th century.

HOW NOW, DOWN DOW?

So it's a little red box on a stick...
what's the big deal?

Amidst the recent slew of disorientating market swings, I've been keeping a steady eye on some key technical indicators, waiting for a signal to buy for what I suspect could be a multi-month bounce.

TOO EARLY TO BUY, TOO LATE TO SELL

Armageddon headlines are suddenly back in vogue.
Not a single positive story to be found on the Marketwatch front page,
and some of the TV media coverage is becoming hysterical.  

At last!

We began to see signs of true panic today, with a major spike in both the $VIX volatility index and the Equity Put/Call ratio.  This bodes well for a sharp rebound in coming days, which I fully expect to be met with more selling in the weeks to come.

THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING

FTSE 100 August 4th 2011

ishares Emerging Markets ETF August 4th 2011

Brazil ishares ETF August 4th 2011

France CAC40 index August 4th 2011

Germany DAX index August 4th 2011

US S&P500 index August 4th 2011

Hear that strange sucking sound?  Is it the sound of stock prices swirling down the plughole?  Is it the sound of traders' sphincters suddenly tightening en mass?  Or is it the sound of millions of snoring investors across the world suddenly waking up?