welcome to On the Money,
your 24-carat investment nugget,
insight-rich, jargon-free.
In 2002, for reasons set out in the link below and in a previous post, I became wildly bullish on the stock market whilst simultaneously warning everybody I knew to expect the mother of all economic busts in 2008-2009. Seeing the writing on the wall in January 2008, I finally sold all my stock positions. I eventually began buying again in March 2009, thus managing to avoid the worst market meltdown in eighty years.
During the carnage of '08 and early '09 I sent out volleys of emails to anxious investor friends offering general thoughts or specific advice, eventually setting up ON THE MONEY in late 2009 as a way to keep friends up to speed more efficiently and comprehensively. For further details of advice sent and investments placed and avoided, please check this link.
My background is non-financial and much of the content is expressed in what financial 'nerds' might see as an overly-simplistic style - but, fellow nerds, we have lots of fun places to go online.
ON THE MONEY is primarily designed to be informative and entertaining for those who are bamboozled by the jargon but still want to manage their money intelligently and learn where hidden dangers and opportunities lurk.
For anyone not familiar with the language of Wall St, the information in most financial sites & blogs tends to cluster around one of two extremes: shrewd and frankly impenetrable, or simplistic and frankly worthless. ON THE MONEY attempts to be simultaneously shrewd and fathomable to anyone serious about making or holding on to their money in this brave new financial world.
So as we continue to navigate the most treacherous seas of our investing lives forget gold and silver: the most valuable commodity on earth in the decade ahead will be informed, bullshit-free, hot-air-free, rose-tinted-glass-free, jargon-free insight.
Just as in politics neither left nor right has a monopoly on wisdom, I refuse to let myself become either a starry-eyed perma-bull or a stopped-clock über-bear.
Right now I would describe my outlook as that of a 'pragma-bear': I confidently expect the next decade to be desperate for the economy and for naïve investors, but remain open to the possibility that I am wrong; my belief that a major crash was probable in 2008 came from studies which show that demographics are a major driver of mature economies - but I am willing to entertain the possibility that this theory may soon be disproved; I am also confident that, although those willing to take the risk should enjoy several stupendous trading opportunities on the short side, we'll also see many powerful moves higher (the 2009-10 market rally for example) which I do not intend to miss.
The challenge will be to know when it's time to switch between our bull and bear costumes to take advantage of these monstrous swings; I'm proud of my timing record over the past few years (which utilizes a wide range of proprietary and time-tested technical and sentiment indicators), a record which you can continue to monitor in these pages.
After a period of posting as regularly as clockwork, ON THE MONEY nuggets now only appear ad hoc and when a change of major potential significance for your investments is brewing (there's quite enough trivia competing for our precious time without me adding my share). For that reason, if you like what you see in these pages you might like to subscribe to the blog by email to avoid missing any particularly urgent updates.
I hope you'll find the combination of ultra-long-term overview and here-and-now investment practicality offers a rare perspective.
Enjoy!
James Goode
London , UK
April 2010
