Thursday 30 December 2010

THE COMPLEAT INVESTOR: Part 2







In Part One, I dangled before my reader the promise of a long term investment plan anyone can follow, that really works.




In an ideal world, such a plan would need to be seriously easy to set up and maintain, offer the prospect of strong but steady growth over the ultra-long term and, by avoiding those occasional but potentially devastating bear markets, take full advantage of the remarkable wealth-building power of compound returns.  



Wednesday 22 December 2010

THE COMPLEAT INVESTOR: Part 1








I have laid aside business, and gone a-fishin'.
Izaak Walton, The Compleat Angler, 1653




As the early nights draw in, icy winds and snows descend and we plunge headlong into the deep mid-winter, On the Money finds himself curling up on the sofa, throwing back a couple of port & brandys and taking stock.  


Tuesday 14 December 2010

STOCKS: Iceberg dead ahead






Click and open in a new window to enlarge to monster size




There are now so many signals calling for a top in the stock market it's hard to know where to begin...





Monday 13 December 2010

AN IRISHMAN LETS FLY IN THE WINDY CITY




Keepin' it real.






Stand by for a major new OntheMoney post, 
coming soon...




Thursday 9 December 2010

STOCKS: Shanghai Blues signals New York State of Mind









Now let's take another angle on the theme from my previous post.  In the past few weeks, Chinese investors' worries have pulled their stock index back down into the mire from which it had only just managed to escape.  If past patterns persist, this is not good news for our markets.



Sunday 5 December 2010

CHINA: What if they built a city, and nobody came?

























In a few years time, when people are shaking their heads wondering whatever happened to the Chinese economic miracle, remember this image.



Friday 19 November 2010

STOCKS, PRECIOUS METALS, COMMODITIES: A whole lot of bull






Whatever you do, don't look up




Evidence is accumulating that the recent breakout to new highs in many world markets may have been nothing but a giant head-fake.





Sunday 7 November 2010

GROUNDHOG DAY



You've seen this movie before



Ever wished you could do something utterly selfish, wicked and outrageous and never have to pay the price?  



Thursday 4 November 2010

Dollar breaks down - CORRECTION STYMIED





The almost perfect correlation between the US dollar & stocks -
until that breaks or the dollar bottoms, markets are heading higher




Following the election results and the Fed's announcement of renewed quantitative easing, a flash of euphoria today lifted many stock markets around the world to new highs...





Tuesday 19 October 2010

Correction Imminent - UPDATE






TWO PATHS DIVERGED IN A YELLOW WOOD...






Following a stellar September, I believe the stars are now lining up powerfully to halt the progress markets have made since Ben 'The Beard' Bernanke placed his quivering finger over that nuclear button marked 'QE2'...





Tuesday 12 October 2010

STOCKS, PRECIOUS METALS, COMMODITIES: Correction imminent







7pm TUESDAY 12TH OCTOBER 2010




A sharp pullback in virtually all risk assets - in which category I now have to include the 'safe-havens' of gold and silver - is close at hand.  





Thursday 7 October 2010

UK PROPERTY: Prices post record drop as bull trap snaps shut





A BULL TRAP IN HOUSING (AND STOCKS) WAS SET IN THE REBOUND OF 2009 - ANYBODY BUYING SINCE ON A PRESUMPTION THAT THE WORST IS OVER IS LIKELY IN FOR A SHOCK




In my original Financial Report sent out way back in January 2009, I included a chart illustrating the classic timeline of an investment mania.  Here it is again, unaltered.  It applies to share prices, it applies to house prices.  It applies to tulips.  




After months of gradually accelerating price falls and a shocker out today, it seems increasingly clear that our 'dead-cat bounce' in housing is well and truly deceased.  The illusion of a return to normality persisted for a year and saw prices, in London especially, rebound quite strongly.  But it does appear that this was indeed a classic 'bull trap' and that the next extended phase of the decline has now begun.





Monday 4 October 2010

Part II - WHAT LIES BENEATH







Manipulative, calculating and infuriatingly effective, Robert Zemeckis' Hitchcockian chiller stars Michelle Pfeiffer as a car crash victim suffering from amnesia and a 'perfect' marriage. Having moved with her scientific-genius husband into a beautiful New England retreat (Harrison Ford in one of his last ever topless appearances), she soon discovers that her new house is haunted, her neighbour is a violent wife-beater and her husband may be a liar, an adulterer and possibly, even, a killer.


Natural and supernatural clues soon lead her to seek answers at the bottom of a nearby lake.  



What lies beneath~~~?  




Thursday 16 September 2010

GOLD: The ultimate bubble





Soros has, over the lifetime of his fund, made more money for his clients
than British Airways or Apple have earned in their entire history.











George Soros, according to a recent study the world's most profitable hedge fund manager, opined on various investment topics during a recent symposium.  Asked his opinion on gold, he repeated his view that it was in a huge bubble and was not a 'safe' investment...







Sunday 5 September 2010

BALL OF CONFUSION (Part 1)






Round and around and around we go
Where the world's headed nobody knows

(Fans, marvel at the a capella vocals here)




Vietnam, 
segregation, 
social degradation, 
inner-city decay, 
drugs, 
police brutality, 
political corruption... 




Considering the catalogue of injustice The Temptations had to sing about when this classic was released in 1970, the use of an iconic protest song to illustrate the economic problems in our altogether more bountiful age might seem a little flip.  



But if that year represented a turning point between the youth-inspired creativity, hope and idealism of the 1960s and the late-century age of cynicism, materialism and greed which ultimately followed, I'm wondering if a different kind of tipping point may have been reached right here, in the dog-days of 2010.



Saturday 28 August 2010

Long Term Investment Strategy - a critical update





















In August's On the Money post I outlined in broad terms a strategy which, if a century of data can be trusted, should allow anyone serious about their pension or investments to build up a very handsome return over time.







Monday 23 August 2010

STOCKS: Hindenburg's catalogue of carnage















I thought it would be worthwhile looking back at the history of this much-mocked stock market indicator, since we now have at least two sightings of the Hindenburg Omen (and possibly three, depending on your definition of the rules) in the past two weeks, as well as several near-misses over the past few months.




For anyone who missed the recent media feeding frenzy and who has not yet caught my previous post, the Omen is a peculiar set of conditions which when found together seem to indicate a market on the verge of a nervous breakdown...  







Thursday 19 August 2010

GOLD: Two-faced Goldman signals inflection point








Goldman caught red-highlighted...page 1
A few months ago, Goldman Sachs found itself in the headlines and subject to a major government investigation for the crime of, not to put it too politely, screwing its own clients.





It was found, during the dying days of the mortgage boom in 2007, to have encouraged a number of buyers of its mortgage-backed securities to invest in a bond which it knew another of its clients had constructed and designed specifically to crash and burn...




Monday 16 August 2010

UK PROPERTY: Selling stampede signals market top









The gradual tiptoeing of sellers into the market which started a few months ago has become a stampede.




Sensing the turning of the tide, homeowners who had held out for a return to the fantasy values of 2007 are now deciding to cash in their chips as the economy begins to wobble...



Sunday 15 August 2010

STOCKS: Hindenburg Omen confirms dire outlook - crash possible










Last Thursday, a little understood but much commented-upon technical signal known as the Hindenburg Omen appeared, hovering gloomily over market sentiment.  This rare sighting - it has popped up a couple of dozen times in the last quarter century - had financial news reporters all over the world quite agog.   Why?  Its record of alerting investors to major declines and market crashes is frighteningly good...






Thursday 12 August 2010

STOCKS: The market breakdown has begun












No sooner did I submit my previous post than stocks jumped off a cliff and began a graceful swan dive. The S&P500 lost 2.8%, the FTSE100 2.4%...







Tuesday 10 August 2010

STOCKS: The rally is almost done





The disconcertingly clear-sighted and belligerent Robin Griffiths, Cazenove Capital's star technical strategist, believes the rally from July has peaked - and with it, the great market rebound which started a year and a half ago.  




Here he makes his bearish call - and takes down a bullish fellow panellist with the relish of a country gentleman murdering a shot of Remy Martin after a particularly good hunt...






Sunday 1 August 2010

THE QUICK AND THE DEAD






T H E    Q U I C K    A N D    T H E    D E A D

______o0o______


I N   T H I S   T O W N ,  
Y O U ' R E   E I T H E R   O N E   
O R   T H E   O T H E R



When it comes to investment decisions, are you Gene Hackman or Leonardo di Caprio? Are you a swashbuckling risk-taker, or a cautious, hard-bitten wallet-warrior?  Are you quick - or are you dead?